安圣基quora: 中国人均GDP什么时候会超过美国?

  Andrew Roberts, Studied Economics a long time ago, but still use money, banks and goods

  TL; DR - Not for centuries

  在几个世纪内都不可能实现。

  The nominal GDPs will likely pass at around the $25,000 bn/year mark, in under 16 years (2032 or 17 years on from the 2015 figures below). At that point the US will have a population approaching 0.4bn, and China 1.35bn, so on an inpidual (per capita) basis China will not even be a third of the way to catching the US.

  名义国内生产总值很可能在16年内达到2.5万亿美元/年的水平(2032年或从2015年起算17年)。届时,美国人口将接近4亿,中国人口将达到13.5亿,因此,就人均而言,中国甚至连美国的三分之一都赶不上。

  Unfortunately this is the point at which Chinas economy is forecast to slow to a growth rate that is no more than a percentage point superior to that of the US, and be below 2% in real terms, so the necessary tripling of the economy will take centuries eg.

  不幸的是,中国经济的增长速度预计将在这个点上放缓,不会超过美国一个百分点,实际增长率将低于2%,因此中国经济要增长三倍将需要耗费几个世纪的时间。

  A Chinese GDP growth forecast:

  中国GDP增长预测:

  Feifei Wang, I spend about the same amount of my life in China and in the US.

  Theyll conquer the world and turn the earth into an Orwellian dystopia! YEAH!!!!

  他们将征服世界,把地球变成奥威尔式的人间炼狱!耶! ! ! !

  LOL. No... just kidding.

  哈哈不不不…我只是开个玩笑。

  Its very unlikely China will match US on its GDP per Capita. China has 1.3 billion people. If we reach GDP per Capita as the current US, US probably got a lot more wealthy by then. Well never catch them with that kind of population.

  中国的人均国内生产总值不太可能与美国相比。中国有13亿人口。如果我们的人均GDP达到现在美国的水平,那么到那时,中国可能会变得富裕得多。我们永远也追赶不上那样的人口大国。

  But, lets just say, we did do match US on GDP per Capita, theoretically, China would be about 10 times more wealthy than US. That would indeed make China THE superpower of the world. I imagine people would start learning Chinese the same way everyone is learning English right now. However, traditionally China wasnt an aggressive country, were not all that interested in expending our territory, not like Romans or Mongolians. So Its very unlikely that China would go on a conquering spree. So, no even China is 10 times richer than US, there wont be any Orwellian dystopia.

  但是,安圣基假设,我们的人均国内生产总值和美国相当,理论上,中国的财富将达到美国的10倍。这确实会使中国成为世界超级大国。我想人们会开始学习中文,就像现在每个人学习英语一样。然而,中国传统上就不是一个侵略的国家,我们不像罗马人或蒙古人,对扩张领土并不感兴趣。因此,中国不太可能继续大举侵略。因此,即使中国比美国富裕10倍,中国也不会有任何奥威尔式的人间炼狱。

  And I suspect in order to keep growing, theres get to be some kind of change. Communist cant expect the people to going on like this forever, corruption needs to be address, more freedom and human rights need to be respected. I think if we actually match US on its GDP per Capita, wed do it as a democratic country.

  我想为了保持增长,一定会发生一些变化。不能指望人民永远这样下去,他们必须解决腐败问题,必须更加尊重自由和人全。我认为,如果我们的人均国内生产总值与美国相当,我们必须成为国家才可能实现。

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